1st digital Summit Talk, Oct. 29

The difficulty – and solution – of reliable forecasts

Jochen Pinsker will kick off our series of Digital Summits Talks, starting October 29, 3.00 p.m. The market researcher of the globally active NPD Group and renowned expert will take a looks at the current figures, scenarios and trends on the food service market in Europe. His hosts will be foodservice editor-in-chief Boris Tomic and editor Katrin Wissmann.

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21st European Foodservice Summit - Digital Edition
Speaker: Jochen Pinsker, Senior Vice President, The NPD Group, Nürnberg/Germany
Date: 29, October 2020, 3:00 p.m.
Title: Future Drivers of our Industry

Scenario Planning Methodology

Valid data and reliable forecasts have never been more important than in these turbulent times. The NPD Group has been developing a methodology that allows to predict consumer spend and visits into the different segments of foodservice industry based on a segmentation into need states or visit situations. The idea is that people use the industry depending on whether they find themselves in various situations in which they require or want restaurants, cafés, cafeterias, delivery services or take-aways to cater for their need. 

NPD has identified so called 'Drivers' that determine how often consumers are expected to find themselves in different situations. They range from the economic situation, their openess to go out, changes in restaurant offerings to core changes in their private and work life. The development of these Drivers was combined in different scenarios.

Understanding the size of the Visit Situation before the COVID-19 pandemic though, the CREST consumer panel and building scenarios for the Drivers allows to estimate market sizes in future periods.

European Trends vs local countries

The steps we took during the pandemic showed a similar picture throughout all countries: the 'Old Normal' before the outbreak, the introduction of the restrictions in the countries, the lock-down, the beginning of the recovery when restrictions started to be lifted and – hopefully soon when there will be no more restrictions – the 'new normal'. Whilst all countries went through these steps in a similar order, the baseline during the lockdown but also how quickly the recovery led to increasing visits and spend shows large differences between the countries. And mid-September, some countries are back to 80% of the size pre-COVID-19, some still only operate at 50%.