Just Eat Takeaway corrects forecast

Lieferando courier in Berlin. Parent company Just Eat Takeaway has to scale back its expectations for 2022.
IMAGO / Michael Gstettenbauer
Lieferando courier in Berlin. Parent company Just Eat Takeaway has to scale back its expectations for 2022.

Lieferando parent Just Eat Takeaway is revising its annual forecast. It now expects significantly lower gross transaction volume (GTV) for 2022 than at the beginning of the year. In addition, a sale of the U.S. delivery service Grubhub, which was not acquired until 2021, is on the cards. The company made the announcement as part of a Q1 trading update.

Accordingly, GTV is now expected to grow only in the mid single-digit percentage range compared to the previous year. Previously, management had still held out the prospect of growth in the mid-teens percentage range. For the 1st quarter 2022, the company indicated a slight increase in GTV to 7.2 billion euros. Compared to the same period last year, this represents an increase of 4 percent, but adjusted for inflation and currency only at the level of Q1 2021. GTV captures the gross total of brokered orders, including taxes, tips and any delivery fees.

Number of orders declining

On the other hand, the loss margin guidance is slightly better than last. The company now expects adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) to be 0.5 to 0.7 percent of gross merchandise value, up from 1.2 percent a year ago. The most recent target for the margin was minus 0.6 to 0.8 percent. In 2022, an operating loss is therefore likely to be incurred again, albeit less than in the previous year.

With around 264 million orders in Q1 2022, Just Eat not only missed analysts' average expectations by a wide margin, but also recorded a slight year-on-year decline of 1 percent. However, in the Northern European market, which includes the German business in the form of the Lieferando brand, the group was able to increase both the number of orders (+4%) and GTV (+6%).

US business could be sold

Declining are the published figures for the North American market, where Just Eat Takeaway is represented by the SkipTheDishes (Canada) and Grubhub (USA) brands. Here, a minus of 5 percent compared to Q1 2021 in the number of orders strikes.

This fits in with the company's announcement that management is currently examining several options, such as the partial or complete sale of Grubhub. The management board could also imagine bringing a strategic partner on board. However, it is unclear whether a decision will actually be made in favor of one of the options. The purchase of Grubhub was not completed until June 15, 2021.