Power Breakfast Anuga 2021

Sales level won't reach pre-covid levels before 2023

Jochen Pinsker from the npd-group presents the latest out-of-home market figures to Anuga.
Jochen Pinsker from the npd-group presents the latest out-of-home market figures to Anuga.

To be clear right away - even in 2022, the European out-of-home market will not return to the level of the pre-Covid year 2019, according to npdgroup's research. Jochen Pinsker, Senior Vice President of npdgroup, explained that in 2022, sales will still be at least six percent lower than in 2019.

In absolute terms, this means projected sales in 2022 of €304bn, compared with €320bn in 2019. 2021 is likely to end with around €244bn, according to npdgroup estimates. 2020 marks the low point in the pandemic with €201bn in sales. The above figures refer to the combined markets of Germany, UK, Russia, France, Spain and Italy (Big 6).

China is doing better

The Chinese market already fared much better than the European one during the pandemic - strict policies in the Middle Kingdom required workers to quickly return from home offices to regular workplaces.

This measure naturally boosts consumption in the out-of-home market - after all, coffee bars, for example, make around 60 percent of their sales from commuters or travelers. And not only in China.

Refrigerator as an alternative

But coffee bars are of course only one aspect of the market. More home offices means less sales in the foodservice industry worldwide. Those who stay at home often opt to keep food in their own refrigerators and use their own coffee makers.
European sales return at a glance.
European sales return at a glance.

In his research, Pinsker assumes that about 80 percent of future work will be done in the regular office, 20 percent will be mobile work. Mobile working does not necessarily mean home office. Co-working spaces will play a bigger role again - there, gastronomy can generate new and additional revenues.

More offers for home office workers

At home, the competition from the food service sector has to stand up to the refrigerator. Therefore, local offers, delivery services and ready-to-eat products that can be quickly reached in the district are extremely in demand here.