Jochen Pinsker, Senior Vice President Foodservice Europe npdgroup Deutschland. Here pictured on stage at last years Anuga.
Valid data and reliable forecasts have never been more important than in these turbulent times. At the first Digital Summit Talk, market researcher and renowned expert Jochen Pinsker looks at the current figures, scenarios and trends on the food service market in Europe. The Senior Vice President of the German division of the globally active NPD Group will kick off the Digital Summit Talk together with foodservice editor-in-chief Boris Tomic / foodservice editor Katrin Wissmann. The weblink for participation will be shared shortly, stay tuned.
21st European Foodservice Summit - Digital EditionSpeaker: Jochen Pinsker, Senior Vice President, The NPD Group, Nürnberg/GermanyDate: 29, October 2020, 3:00 p.m.Title: Future Drivers of our Industry
Scenario Planning Methodology
The NPD Group has been developing a methodology that allows to predict consumer spend and visits into the different segments of foodservice industry based on a segmentation into need states or visit situations.
The idea is that people use the industry depending on whether they find themselves in various situations in which they require or want restaurants, cafés, cafeterias, delivery services or take-aways to cater for their need. For example, being in the office or in the factory on a day may trigger the purchase of a hot beverage for the commute, lunch in the workplace cafeteria and a snack in the afternoon.
Now when consumers don't work from their office because they stopped working or work from home, they do not find themselves in the situation that requires a foodservice purchase.
NPD has identified so called 'Drivers' that determine how often consumers are expected to find themselves in different situations
. They range from the economic situation, their openess to go out, changes in restaurant offerings to core changes in their private and work life. The development of these Drivers was combined in different scenarios.
Understanding the size of the Visit Situation
before the COVID-19 pandemic though, the CREST consumer panel and building scenarios for the Drivers allows to estimate market sizes in future periods.
European Trends vs local countries
The steps we took during the pandemic showed a similar picture throughout all countries
: the 'Old Normal'
before the outbreak, the introduction of the restrictions in the countries, the lock-down, the beginning of the recovery when restrictions started to be lifted and – hopefully soon when there will be no more restrictions – the 'new normal'.
Whilst all countries went through these steps in a similar order, the baseline during the lockdown but also how quickly the recovery led to increasing visits and spend
shows large differences between the countries.
And mid-September, some countries are back to 80% of the size pre-COVID-19, some still only operate at 50%.